In Maine, each town gets one caucus site. So the entire city of Portland will be caucusing at Portland High School today. Portland is about the size of Iowa City -- they both have roughly 20,000 registered Democrats. Iowa City used its high school as one of about twenty caucus sites, and even then the cafeteria was packed. Something tells me the Portland caucus may have to move out to the parking lot -- but of course there won't be any room there, either.
P.S. I have a spy at one of the early Maine caucus sites. More soon . . .
UPDATE: Our Spy has arrived at the caucus site in Scarborough, a somewhat upscale beach town just south of Portland. He says that the Clinton campaign is there in force, with big signs and more people. The caucus was supposed to convene at 1:00, but they have delayed the start because so many people are still in line.
Scarborough went for Bradley over Gore by 51-49 in 2000, while Gore took the state as a whole by 57-43. So I'm guessing Obama will have to do very well here (exceeding 58%?) to have a chance statewide.
UPDATE: Our Spy says that, when he arrived, they simply checked his name off the voter list. He wasn't given a number or anything to indicate that he was a voter rather than a spectator. It will be interesting to see how they count votes when the time comes. As of 1:35 Eastern time, they are still checking people in.
UPDATE: Spy reports: "All of a sudden it's snowing like crazy."
CLARIFICATION: When Spy said that the Clinton campaign had "more people" there, he meant more campaign workers. He still has no estimate of the relative strength of the two candidates among the voters there. People aren't separating into different groups. Not clear how the counting will take place.
UPDATE: They convened the caucus at 2:20 -- an hour and twenty minutes late. They're saying (unsurprisingly) that it's a record turnout. Spy estimates that 60% of the room is on the Obama side. They're trying to figure out how to count people -- they've settled on having people walk one-by-one out the door and then come back in. After several people made opening speeches (including a New York Congressman on Clinton's behalf -- Spy didn't catch his name), the populace revolted and moved to go directly to the vote.
UPDATE: The Clinton line has already passed through their door. The Obama line, going through a different door, still extends three-quarters of the length of the cafeteria.
UPDATE: As you go through the door -- and it's not a single file line -- someone looks up and makes a hash mark on a yellow pad. No one checks to see if you're actually a voter as opposed to one of the many spectators in the room. Spy says it would be very easy for someone to go back in and then go through the line twice. (I know I'm fuelling a future Bela rant here.)
An official says there are 700 people there. There are about 4000 registered Democrats in Scarborough. No report on how many new voters signed up, or switched over. (I don't even know if switching over is allowed.)
UPDATE: Many people, after filing through the door, went to their cars and left. As a result, the Chairman announces that there will be no second ballot (even, apparently, if one is needed under the rules).
Earlier, as the Clinton section of the room chanted, "Hillary! Hillary!" a man next to Spy chanted, "Primary! Primary!"
UPDATE: The results are in: Obama 401, Clinton 280. That's 58.8% for Obama, just narrowly exceeding my estimate of what he might need to win statewide. Obviously, the only sensible conclusion to draw from those numbers is that this will probably be a very close election. Nonetheless, cj hereby draws this less-than-sensible conclusion: Obama will win the state of Maine, 51.2% to 48.8%.
Spy, meanwhile, partly by virtue of his continued presence in the room, has been chosen as a delegate to Augusta.
I have Another Spy in Richmond, Maine, whose caucus is scheduled to convene at 4:30 Eastern time. Stay tuned.
UPDATE: Spy tells me that Saco split about 50-50 at its caucus. That seems good for Obama, if my Gore-Bradley parallel holds; in 2000, Bradley (my Obama proxy) ran 5 points better statewide than he did in Saco.
MSNBC is reporting that Clinton's campaign manager, Patty Solis Doyle, is stepping down. When will they tank Mark Penn?
More early returns in a minute . . .
UPDATE: Some returns being reported in the Portland Press-Herald look awfully good for Obama.
In Yarmouth, Obama took 77.7% of the vote. In 2000, Bradley ran about 13 points higher in Yarmouth than he did statewide.
In Cape Elizabeth, Obama took 71.9% of the vote. In 2000, Bradley ran about 14 points higher in Cape Elizabeth than he did statewide.
In Fairfield, Obama won by one vote, ending up with 50.5%. In 2000, Bradley ran about 13 points worse in Fairfield than he did statewide.
UPDATE: More results are coming in on the Press-Herald site. I'm aggregating them all now. It's still a small number of towns, but Obama is getting 67.5% in those towns. In 2000, Bradley got 51.4% in the same set of towns, and ended up with 43.3% statewide. If the analogy holds, Obama would be zeroing in on 59% statewide. We'll see.
UPDATE: A few more towns, and Obama is still running 18.3 percentage points better than Bradley did in 2000. To win, he needs to run only 6.7 points better than Bradley.
Question: Why are Days Of Industry and the Press-Herald outperforming MSNBC & Co. on this? I'm assuming the networks are intentionally withholding vote totals until everyone has had a chance to caucus. No such scruples here on DOI (whose readership in Maine, I must assume, is very small).
DOI: Your source for up-to-the-minute vote totals and analysis!
UPDATE: MSNBC has finally started posting results. Right now, with 59% reporting, Obama is ahead 57-42. I'll let them take it from here.
